Will you outlive your savings? How to make sure you’re setting an adequate goal
RAMONA HENDERSON PEARSON WANTS her family to join an exclusive club with 9 million members: The households in this club have a net worth of at least $1 million. A past president of the National Association of Black Accountants, the married mother of two heads The Pearson Group, a Detroit-based accounting and financial advisory firm. “My goal is to reach $1 million in liquid assets,” says Pearson, 54. “That should be enough for me to retire. I’m hoping to get there in about five years.”
At first blush, $1 million in liquid assets–cash, stocks, bonds, and mutual funds–may sound sufficient to ensure a comfortable retirement. But research shows that even seven figures in savings may fall short of providing retirees with the lifestyle they want. Retirement has changed dramatically in recent years, because Americans are living longer and are healthier and more active. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, African Americans who reach age 65 are expected to live 17.1 more years, and those who reach age 75, can expect another 11.4 years. So if you want your nest egg to help fund two or more decades of leisure and travel, you’ll need to do some careful planning.
First, consider how much you’ll need to maintain your lifestyle. Bill Bengen, a financial planner in El Cajon, California, conducted extensive research in the early ’90s to determine a “safe” withdrawn rate–one that would help ensure that retirees would not outlive their savings. Bengen concluded that a 4% withdrawal rate should be safe. That is, by tapping a portfolio for 4% of its value in the first year of retirement, and increasing that withdrawal rate by 4% each year to keep up with inflation, the portfolio should not run dry before 33 years and might last as long as 50.
Since then, Bengen says he’s altered his views somewhat. “For most of my clients, I recommend an initial withdrawal rate of 4.5% to 5%,” he says. It’s a matter of striking a balance. Some seniors may be able to front-load their withdrawals a bit and spend more conservatively in later life. As you grow older, perhaps past 75, you probably won’t spend as much on travel and other leisure activities as you did during your early retirement years. You’ll need to be prepared, however, for rising healthcare expenses. “If you go much higher,” Bengen says, “say to a 7% initial withdrawal rate, there’s a much greater chance of running out of money while you’re still alive.”
Vicki Brackens, a senior financial planner with MetLife in Syracuse, New York, says it was common in the past for advisers to recommend higher withdrawal rates. But now “people are living longer, so longevity has become a bigger factor in planning for portfolio distributions,” she says. “Greater market volatility also has made me more cautious.” She suggests, therefore, that clients plan on a 4% initial withdrawal rate.
But be sure to look at the numbers: Pearson would withdraw $50,000, or 5%, the first year of retirement; then $52,000 the second year, assuming inflation is 4%, and so on. “That withdrawal rate, in addition to Social Security benefits, should be enough for me,” says Pearson. “If your lifestyle is not overly expensive and your home is paid for, you should be able to live comfortably on that much income.”
With those assumptions, retirement planning becomes a step-by-step process:
1. Determine how much you’ll need to maintain your lifestyle in retirement. Will you spend as much then as you do now? Will you spend more? Less? Several helpful budgeting calculators are available online .
2. Estimate your retirement income from Social Security, a pension, and other sources. The annual statement you receive from the Social Security Administration can help. For a rough estimate of your benefits, use the Social Security quick calculator . “For most employees, Social Security can be counted on to provide no more than 20% to 30% of a working paycheck,” says Steve Cooper, a principal at Nemco Brokerage Inc., an insurance broker in New York City. “If you earn more than $100,000 a year, your Social Security benefits will an even smaller percentage of your income.”
3. The difference between the amount of your projected expenses and income is the amount you’ll need from your portfolio. Multiply this amount by 20 to get the target size of your portfolio, assuming a 5% initial withdrawal.
Moreover, you should start as early as possible. “If you wait until the peak of your Career–your 40s or 50s–you’ll have to put aside more money to catch up,” says Genevia Gee Fulbright, a certified public accountant in Durham, North Carolina. “On the other hand, you can start putting aside much smaller amounts in your 20s and benefit from a longer time available for the funds to accumulate.”